ANR-Lab seminar "Strategic reorientation in the network structure of intercountry trade flows due to sanctions (using the example of restrictions against Russia)"

This paper analyzes the structural restructuring of the international trade network under the impact of sanctions against Russia. Using data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity for 2018–2024, it examines the dynamics of bilateral trade flows and the changing position of countries in the global trade network. Network analysis methods are used, including indicators of degree, strength, betweenness centrality, and closeness, as well as a cooperative game approach to assessing the structural contribution of individual countries. The characteristic function is constructed based on changes in triadic trade routes, and the Shapley value is used to distribute their cumulative value among network participants. The results demonstrate that the sanctions shock does not lead to the collapse of the global trade network, but rather triggers its adaptation and redistribution of flows. The global core of the network remains intact, while after 2022, the importance of alternative trade routes and individual intermediary countries increases, primarily the UAE, Turkey, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Hong Kong. The paper also demonstrates that an increase in trade flows is not always accompanied by an increase in a country's intermediary position in the network.  

Seminar language: Russian  

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